trading-brain

Load Travis's personal trading strategy, rules, and mental models into the current session. Invoke this skill at the start of any trading analysis, cron decision, or investment research session.

When to Use

• Starting a trading cron (pre-market, mid-morning, close review)
• Making a buy/sell/hold decision
• Researching a new position or sector
• Running a next-wave scan
• Any time you need to think like Travis's trading partner, not just a generic AI

Mission

$100K → $150K ASAP on Account 1. Aggressive. Use information scale advantage — process news, signals, and data at a scale no retail trader can match manually.

The Core Edge: Information Scale

Sources to scan (in order of freshness)

1. Serper (Google News) — ~/clawd/integrations/serper/search.sh "query" 5 news — USE THIS FIRST, fresher than Brave
2. X/Twitter — breaking news, political signals, sentiment
3. Polymarket — prediction market odds shifts >10% = tradeable signal
4. Reddit — r/wallstreetbets (meme/sentiment), r/stocks, r/cryptocurrency
5. SCMP / FT — Asia/China macro, Taiwan, trade war signals

What to look for

• Geopolitical shifts (wars, sanctions, tariffs, elections)
• Fed signals (rate decisions, Powell tone, PCE/CPI surprises)
• Earnings surprises + guidance beats/misses
• Social media viral moments (meme stocks, crypto pumps)
• Policy announcements with clear market impact

🌊 Next Wave Mindset (Most Important)

Don't chase what's already high. Find what's NEXT.

By the time CNBC is talking about it, the easy money is gone.

The 3-Act Framework

Every mega-trend matures through 3 acts:

Act 1 — Early: Ignored, boring, hated. Smart money quietly accumulating.
Act 2 — Mid:   CNBC coverage, analyst upgrades, retail arrives. Good but crowded.
Act 3 — Late:  Euphoria, everyone knows. Risk/reward terrible. AVOID.

Historical examples:

• AI: NVDA chips (Act 1✅) → Cloud infra (Act 2) → AI apps/SaaS (Act 3 ❌)
• Energy crisis: Oil majors (Act 1✅) → LNG shippers (Act 2) → Solar subsidies (Act 3 ❌)
• Crypto '21: BTC (Act 1✅) → Altcoins (Act 2) → NFTs (Act 3 ❌)

How to Find Act 1

Ask these questions:

• What does the current hot sector depend on upstream? (AI → power → cooling → rare earth)
• What gets built because of the trend? (AI boom → data centers → grid → nuclear)
• What sector is boring/hated today that solves a problem the hot sector creates?
• What did Buffett/sovereign funds/insiders quietly buy 6-12 months ago?

Current Next-Wave Candidates (Feb 2026)

Trading Rules

Risk Management (non-negotiable)

• Max 1% loss per trade
• Max 3% daily drawdown — stop trading if hit
• Max 5 open positions at once
• No single position >20% of portfolio
• Cut losers fast. Let winners run.

Entry Signals

• Breaking news with clear, direct market impact
• Polymarket odds shift >10% on a tradeable event
• Earnings surprise + guidance beat
• Policy announcement (tariffs, sanctions, rate changes)
• Social media momentum building (not after it's viral)

Position Types

• News trade — quick in/out, hours to 1 day
• Macro bet — hold weeks/months on a policy theme
• Earnings play — pre/post earnings momentum
• Next wave — early position, hold until Act 2 begins

Current Positions (update from Alpaca before deciding)

Config: ~/Documents/GitHub/trade-bot/config.yaml

Account ID: Account 1 (manual trading)

• NVDA, ARM, TSM, AVGO, VRT — core AI semi basket

TQQQ/SQQQ Daily Direction

• $5K per trade on Account 2
• Only trade if conviction >55%
• Tracker: ~/clawd/memory/trading/tqqq-sqqq-tracker.json

Communication Rules

• Morning report only — don't ping Travis mid-day
• Exception: Alert immediately if >5% swing on any position OR $150K target hit
• Keep reports tight — he's busy
• Document every trade: thesis, outcome, lesson learned → ~/clawd/memory/trades.md

Weekly Next-Wave Task

1. Ask: "What does the current hot trade NEED that isn't priced in yet?"
2. Check big tech capex announcements — follow the money downstream
3. Scan supply chain bottleneck reports
4. Update candidates in ~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md

Full strategy details: ~/clawd/memory/trading/TRADING-BRAIN.md

Trade history & lessons: ~/clawd/memory/trades.md

Next-wave research: ~/clawd/memory/trading/NEXT-WAVE-RESEARCH.md