> This is a template.
> The default signal is keyword-based market discovery combined with conviction-based sizing and transition_bias() — remix it with the data sources listed below.
> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.
Energy transition markets mix slow-moving structural trends with sharp data-driven catalysts. Retail traders consistently misprice two things: (1) they ignore the energy data calendar, where professional markets reprice on known release dates and Polymarket lags by days, and (2) they treat all energy sub-sectors as equally uncertain when nuclear regulatory timelines, OPEC cut patterns, and renewable pipeline data have very different predictability levels.
transition_bias() — combines energy data calendar timing with technology tier confidencemax(MIN_TRADE, conviction × bias × MAX_POSITION) — capped at MAX_POSITIONTwo compounding structural edges:
Factor 1 — Energy Data Calendar Timing
Each energy sub-sector has a known annual data release rhythm where professional traders have better reads than retail:
| Condition | Multiplier | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- |
| EV question + Q1 (Jan–Mar) | 1.20x | IEA/BloombergNEF publish prior-year sales totals — biggest data drop of the year |
| Solar/wind question + Q4 (Oct–Dec) | 1.20x | Year-end installation rush — projects complete before Dec 31, IEA confirms GW additions |
| Oil/OPEC question + OPEC meeting months (Jun, Dec) | 1.15x | Biannual ministerial meetings — pre-meeting uncertainty is highest |
| Gas/LNG question + winter peak (Nov–Feb) | 1.10x | Northern hemisphere demand and storage drawdown window |
| Off-cycle | 1.00x | No timing amplification |
Factor 2 — Technology Tier Confidence
| Technology type | Multiplier | Why |
|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- |
| Nuclear restart / SMR approval | 1.25x | Regulatory timelines are public filings — US retail is poorly informed on EU/Asian nuclear policy |
| OPEC production cut / oil supply | 1.20x | OPEC+ has surprised with cuts 70%+ of the time since 2022 — retail consistently underprices |
| Solar / wind GW capacity milestones | 1.20x | IEA and IRENA publish confirmed project pipelines — markets underprice published data |
| EV adoption / market share / sales | 1.15x | IEA monthly data lags Polymarket pricing by 1–2 months; BYD data leads further |
| Oil price threshold (Brent / WTI) | 1.10x | OPEC+ directional bias documented, but daily volatility adds noise |
| Natural gas / LNG | 1.10x | EIA weekly storage data is public — seasonal demand patterns predictable |
| Carbon / net zero policy pledges | 0.80x | Government pledges rarely resolve cleanly — ambiguous criteria, retail overprices sincerity |
| Hydrogen / green hydrogen milestones | 0.75x | Perennial "5 years away" technology — retail consistently overprices milestones that slip |
Combined and capped at 1.40x. A solar capacity question in Q4 → 1.20 × 1.20 = 1.40x cap — maximum conviction. A hydrogen milestone at any time → 0.75x — trade very conservatively.
electric vehicle, EV, Tesla, BYD, charging station, solar, wind energy,
renewable, nuclear, uranium, oil price, Brent crude, OPEC, energy transition,
battery, grid, power plant, carbon, net zero, IEA, offshore wind, hydrogen,
natural gas, LNG, pipeline, energy storage, gigawatt, capacity, reactor, SMR,
EV adoption, EV sales, energy policy, carbon capture
market.current_probability with IEA monthly EV sales trajectory to trade the divergence between published data and Polymarket retail pricingThe skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only with --live flag.
| Scenario | Mode | Financial risk |
|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- |
python trader.py | Paper (sim) | None |
| Cron / automaton | Paper (sim) | None |
python trader.py --live | Live (polymarket) | Real USDC |
autostart: false and cron: null — nothing runs automatically until you configure it in Simmer UI.
| Variable | Required | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- |
SIMMER_API_KEY | Yes | Trading authority. Treat as high-value credential. |
All declared as tunables in clawhub.json and adjustable from the Simmer UI.
| Variable | Default | Purpose |
|---|---|---|
| --- | --- | --- |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITION | 30 | Max USDC per trade (reached at 100% conviction) |
SIMMER_MIN_VOLUME | 5000 | Min market volume filter (USD) |
SIMMER_MAX_SPREAD | 0.10 | Max bid-ask spread (10%) |
SIMMER_MIN_DAYS | 7 | Min days until resolution |
SIMMER_MAX_POSITIONS | 7 | Max concurrent open positions |
SIMMER_YES_THRESHOLD | 0.38 | Buy YES if market price ≤ this value |
SIMMER_NO_THRESHOLD | 0.62 | Sell NO if market price ≥ this value |
SIMMER_MIN_TRADE | 5 | Floor for any trade (min USDC regardless of conviction) |
simmer-sdk by Simmer Markets (SpartanLabsXyz)
共 2 个版本