Polymarket Candle Momentum

Trade Polymarket 5-minute crypto fast markets using candle body analysis and volume surge detection from Binance. A stronger, data-driven alternative to simple momentum signals.

> This is a template. The default signal uses Binance 1-minute candle structure (body/range ratio + volume surge). Remix it with your own thresholds, additional indicators, or alternative data sources. The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, import, trade execution). Your agent provides the alpha.

> Fast markets carry Polymarket's 10% fee (is_paid: true). The default thresholds are calibrated to maintain edge after fees.

The Signal

Most fast-market skills use simple price momentum (did price go up or down?). This skill looks at how price moved:

1. Candle Body Ratio - Measures the last 1-minute candle's body size relative to its full range. A body ratio > 60% means a decisive move with minimal wicks (strong conviction, not noise).

1. Volume Surge - Confirms the move with volume. The last candle's volume must be > 1.5x the average of the previous 3 candles. High volume + strong body = real move, not a fake-out.

1. Direction Alignment - Body direction (bullish/bearish) must align with the 5-minute momentum direction.

Why This Works Better

Simple momentum catches every wiggle. Candle body analysis filters for quality moves:

• A 0.5% move on a doji candle (long wicks, tiny body) = noise. Skip.
• A 0.3% move on a marubozu candle (90% body, no wicks) = conviction. Trade.

Backtested on BTC/ETH/SOL/XRP/BNB (3 months, 6131 five-minute slots):

• body > 65% + volume > 1.5x: 86.3% win rate (N=292)
• body > 60% + volume > 1.5x: 84.7% win rate (N=333)

Setup

pip dependencies: simmer-sdk, requests

Environment variables:

• SIMMER_API_KEY (required) - get from simmer.markets/dashboard

No other credentials needed. The script only reads SIMMER_API_KEY from the environment. All trades go through SimmerClient.trade() - no wallet private key, no direct CLOB access.

export SIMMER_API_KEY="your_key_here"

# Dry run (default, no trades placed)
python candle_momentum.py

# Live trading via SimmerClient
python candle_momentum.py --live

# Quiet mode for cron
python candle_momentum.py --live --quiet

How to Run on a Loop

The script runs one cycle. Set up a cron (every 2 min recommended for 5min markets):

*/2 * * * * cd /path/to/skill && SIMMER_API_KEY=your_key python candle_momentum.py --live --quiet

Security Notes

• Only SIMMER_API_KEY is read from environment. Nothing else.
• No host files are read. No logs written outside the script's own stdout.
• automaton.managed is false - the skill does not auto-execute.
• Dry-run by default. --live must be passed explicitly.

Trade Execution Path

1. Fetches Binance public klines (no auth) for BTC, ETH, SOL, XRP, BNB
2. Scans all 5 assets, picks strongest signal (body_ratio x vol_surge score)
3. Finds matching Polymarket fast market via SimmerClient
4. If --live: calls SimmerClient.trade() with side, amount, reasoning
5. If dry-run: logs the signal, no trade placed

Configuration

Via environment variables only (no local file persistence):

python candle_momentum.py --set body_threshold=0.65
python candle_momentum.py --set asset=ETH
python candle_momentum.py --set vol_threshold=2.0

Settings

CLI Options

python candle_momentum.py                    # Dry run
python candle_momentum.py --live             # Real trades
python candle_momentum.py --live --quiet     # Silent mode
python candle_momentum.py --positions        # Show open positions
python candle_momentum.py --config           # Show config
python candle_momentum.py --set KEY=VALUE    # Update config

Remix Ideas

The candle body + volume signal is just the starting point. Ideas:

• Multi-timeframe: Confirm 1m signal with 5m candle structure
• Wick analysis: Filter out candles with long upper wicks (rejection)
• RSI filter: Skip overbought/oversold conditions
• Multi-exchange: Compare candle patterns across Binance + Coinbase
• Order flow: Add Polymarket CLOB depth as confirmation

To customize, edit get_candle_signal() in candle_momentum.py.

Example Output

  Polymarket Candle Momentum Trader
==================================================
  [DRY RUN] Use --live to enable trading.

  Configuration:
  Asset:           BTC
  Body threshold:  0.60 (min candle body ratio)
  Vol threshold:   1.5x (min volume surge)
  Max position:    $5.00

  Discovering BTC fast markets...
  Found 3 active fast markets

  Selected: Bitcoin Up or Down - Mar 19, 10:30-10:35AM ET
  Expires in: 210s
  Current YES price: $0.490

  Fetching BTC candle data (binance)...
  Last candle: O=84250 H=84312 L=84245 C=84305
  Body ratio: 0.90 (strong!)
  Direction: BULLISH
  Volume surge: 2.3x avg

  Signal: BUY YES (body=0.90, vol=2.3x, direction=UP)
  Divergence: 5c (YES at 0.49, expected ~0.54)

  [DRY RUN] Would buy $5.00 YES

Source

All trades tagged with source: "sdk:candle-momentum" for portfolio tracking.