Biotech & FDA Trader

> This is a template.

> The default signal is keyword discovery + FDA PDUFA calendar alignment — remix it with ClinicalTrials.gov API for trial status, BioMedTracker historical approval rates by indication, or biotech earnings call sentiment analysis.

> The skill handles all the plumbing (market discovery, trade execution, safeguards). Your agent provides the alpha.

Strategy Overview

The global biotech market is valued at $1.77 trillion (2025) and growing to $6.34 trillion by 2035 (13.6% CAGR). Biotech prediction markets have some of the highest information density — FDA decisions are binary, have clear dates (PDUFA), and are well-studied. This skill trades:

• FDA approvals — Breakthrough therapy designations, CRISPR/oncology approvals, GLP-1 next-gen
• Clinical trials — Phase 3 outcomes, trial enrollment milestones
• Biotech IPOs — Class of 2026 IPO announcement and performance markets
• Pharma M&A — Large-cap acquisition deals in oncology, AI drug discovery
• Precision medicine — CAR-T, mRNA vaccine, liquid biopsy milestones

Key insight: FDA approval rates by indication are well-documented. When Polymarket prices deviate significantly from historical base rates, there's tradeable edge.

Signal Logic

Default Signal: PDUFA Date Calendar + Base Rate Analysis

1. Discover active biotech/FDA markets on Polymarket
2. Match markets to FDA PDUFA calendar (public, updated monthly)
3. Look up historical approval rates for the specific drug class/indication
4. Compare base rate (e.g., oncology breakthrough therapy ~85% approval) vs market price
5. If market prices approval at <70% for a high-base-rate indication, buy YES
6. Use context check to avoid overtraded markets before major catalysts

Remix Ideas

• ClinicalTrials.gov API: Monitor trial status changes (recruiting → completed) as leading indicator
• BioMedTracker / Citeline: Historical approval rate databases by indication
• FDA press releases: Real-time monitoring for early approval/rejection signals
• Biotech Twitter: KOL (Key Opinion Leader) sentiment before PDUFA dates
• Short interest data: High short interest in a biotech before PDUFA = market expects rejection — price this in

Market Categories Tracked

BIOTECH_KEYWORDS = [
    "FDA", "approval", "CRISPR", "cancer", "oncology", "clinical trial",
    "phase 3", "drug", "therapy", "vaccine", "mRNA", "CAR-T",
    "Alzheimer", "GLP-1", "biotech", "pharma", "M&A",
    "IPO", "diagnostic", "liquid biopsy", "gene editing",
    "sickle cell", "precision medicine", "antibody"
]

Risk Parameters

FDA Approval Base Rates (Reference)

Key Data Sources

• FDA PDUFA Calendar: https://www.fda.gov/patients/drug-development-process/step-4-fda-drug-review
• ClinicalTrials.gov API: https://clinicaltrials.gov/api/
• SEC EDGAR (biotech S-1 filings): https://efts.sec.gov/LATEST/search-index?q=%22biotech%22&dateRange=custom

Installation & Setup

clawhub install polymarket-biotech-trader

Requires: SIMMER_API_KEY environment variable.

Cron Schedule

Runs every 20 minutes (/20 *). FDA decisions are infrequent but high-impact; moderate polling is sufficient.

Safety & Execution Mode

The skill defaults to paper trading (venue="sim"). Real trades only execute when --live is passed explicitly.

The automaton cron is set to null — it does not run on a schedule until you configure it in the Simmer UI. autostart: false means it won't start automatically on install.

Required Credentials

Tunables (Risk Parameters)

All risk parameters are declared in clawhub.json as tunables and adjustable from the Simmer UI without code changes. They use SIMMER_-prefixed env vars so apply_skill_config() can load them securely.

Dependency

simmer-sdk is published on PyPI by Simmer Markets.

• PyPI: https://pypi.org/project/simmer-sdk/
• GitHub: https://github.com/SpartanLabsXyz/simmer-sdk
• Publisher: hello@simmer.markets

Review the source before providing live credentials if you require full auditability.